Mexico is overwhelmed by migrants
It almost makes me feel sorry for President Sheinbaum
Trump obviously sees President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico as a Jewish lady who somehow wound up leading the wrong country by accident. They can talk takhles here, just like he would if she were the governor of New Jersey.
But President Sheinbaum is not simply a Jewish president of the United States transplanted to the wrong side of the border. She is a left-wing Mexican nationalist. In itself, that wouldn’t be a problem, but it’s not clear that she realizes how Donald Trump sees her.
And unfortunately for her, President Trump is asking for a lot. It’s not clear that Sheinbaum will be willing to give it. The scope for disappointment is, uh, yuge.
The Phone Call
The recent phone call between the presidents provides grounds for optimism.
President-elect Trump was quite happy with the conversation. Quoth the President-elect: “Mexico will stop people from going to our Southern Border, effective immediately. THIS WILL GO A LONG WAY TOWARD STOPPING THE ILLEGAL INVASION OF THE USA. Thank you!!!”
At first President Sheinbaum said something similar about the call, albeit less exuberantly: “We discussed Mexican strategy regarding the migration issue and I stated that no caravans are getting to the northern border because they’re being handled in Mexico.”
Later she sort-of walked it back, but in a mushy way: “In our conversation with President Trump, I explained the holistic strategy that Mexico has followed to deal with the migration issue, respecting human rights. Thanks to that we have been able to handle migrants and caravans before they get to the border. We repeat that Mexico’s policy is not to close borders but rather to build bridges between governments and peoples.”
A denial of her conversation with Trump this was not. All she did was add a statement that Mexico respects human rights and some folderol about bridges.
So far so good for continued cooperation. Mexico historically has helped the U.S. out on migration from further south. Famously, Mexico clamped down on migration from Central America at the end of the Obama administration.
Sure, Sheinbaum might not yet understand how to manage President Trump, but she’ll learn. If not, she can always call in her Trump Whisperer, the former president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Right?
Maybe not. Let’s look at the scale of the problem President Trump wants the Mexicans to fix.
Illegal migration to Mexico
Mexico records detention “events” when it identifies illegal migrants. Legally, they can only be held for up to 36 hours, so many are released and then picked up again. So take the raw numbers with a grain of salt.
Until 2020, Mexico detained roughly about as many illegal migrants as it deported (including voluntary departures). There was a rise in detentions and deportations after 2014, which was Mexico following a request from the Obama administration. They rose again in 2019, this time after a demand from the Trump administration.
In 2021, however, detentions began an ineluctable rise. In addition, deportations declined. Instead the Mexican government seems to be moving those detained in northern Mexico back south and releasing them, while letting migrants in south go. Detainees from Central America or Venezuela who request it generally receive refugee status; Haitians have a tougher time although the Mexican government does issue “humanitarian” visas.
It’s a massive influx and does not seem to be slowing. Note that the 2024 numbers are only through August; we’ve got four months to go.
Still, before President Trump, doing nothing was an option. The migrants are still barely visible in Guadalajara, Mexico City or Monterrey — in fact, unless you’re looking they’re hard to find outside Chiapas and the border towns. As a result, Mexican public opinion hasn’t yet reacted strongly, so there was no domestic reason for AMLO to expend scarce resources on deportation or change the law to allow for longer detention periods. Sheinbaum is facing the same logic.
The problem is that President-elect Trump wants the migrants to be blocked. Given that Mexico is already dedicating a lot of resources to detaining migrants — a million people a year aren’t detaining themselves — that is going to put quite a burden on the Mexican federal government. It’s also going to require changes in Mexican law to allow for longer detention periods. And it would be likely to engender more human rights abuses, which I believe honestly horrifies President Sheinbaum.
But if she does nothing, then I wouldn’t bet on the Trump administration standing idly by. And please don’t convince yourself that nothing will happen because the U.S. stands more to lose from tariffs than does Mexico, because as I wrote two days ago:
America will be okay if Trump goes ahead with his tariffs on Mexico
Today the inestimable Latin American Risk Report published a piece stating that President Trump would ruin the U.S. economy if he followed through on his plan to impose a blanket 25% tariff on Mexico.
Could the fact that Mexico has a big share of farm imports to the U.S. have an impact on supermarket inflation? Especially given promises to deport undocumented workers? (Seems like the most efficient way to do that would be to raid farms and construction sites, if you really mean it).
Considering that, though I might not have been the one who took that picture of you in the Mexico City 'burbs, I was, certainly, nearby - together with a bunch of other migrants you've spent the afternoon associating with - this is not entirely honest of you. In fact, there are even some Estonians living in those high-rises right outside the frame... And this was, certainly, nowere near Condesa, where foreign speech is now a lot more common than it was when you used to live here. Actually, anti-migrant attitudes in Mexico city are now quit strong: mostly, directed against those gringos that have made Condesa and Polanco unaffordable. If anything, I've been hearing a lot more of anger on that count, than on the count of the Haitian squatter camp in colonia Juarez - at least, the Haitians are not driving the prices up.
But, the fact is, refugee asylums have been bursting at seams for years now, the processing times for refugee status IN Mexico are growing - and that is even one is not counting numerous other "legal pathways" for residency in Mexico that have emerged in the last 5 years. We might now become the end of the road for all those who had been hoping to get further north - or even a refuge for those gringos who'd rather prefer to live in la Roma than in the brave new US. But even without that, for the last few years it has become much easier to imagine Mexico City of the 1940s, when a Mexican visa was among the most precious documents a European could hope for - and where the lucky arrival could enjoy the luxury of rationless meals. Knocking the wood....